Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings 2Q26, Review

Research evidence excerpt

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings 2Q26, Review

ent BVPS (USD) 43.63commentary from J.B. Hunt last week. Offsets from driver pay increases also appear to be less Source: Bloomberg

burdensome than some feared, with CEO Adam Miller stating wage increases need not be as

pronounced as in prior cycles given the need to repair margins from a depressed rate

Price Performance Exchange-NYSE

environment in which driver pay did not decline.

52 Week range USD 82.86-38.63

We recognize some could pick at 3Q guidance for non-fuel trucking revenue to increase only

mid-single digits YoY amid surging rate indices, but the outlook falls in line with our existing

forecast which incorporates a steady repricing cadence, slightly lower tractor count, relatively

limited spot exposure and less cyclical rate renewal for the dedicated truckload business. We

see guidance for a sub-90% adj. trucking OR in 3Q with further momentum expected in 4Q (a

quarter in which TL margins improved 3pts QoQ in softer markets the past two years) as

indicative of healthy cycle leverage, which we expect to translate into an OR beginning to Source: IDC

Link to Barclays Live for interactive chartingapproach low-80s next year. Outside of truckload, the LTL business was softer due to

intentionally metered volumes to address network balance goals (management noted

improving LTL demand and steady pricing), intermodal margins flipped positive with strong North America Transportation

volume and yield expansion while Logistics margins were squeezed but modestly outperformed Eric Morgan, CFA

our recently-lowered expectations. Adding it up, our outlook remains mostly unchanged, +1 212 526 9642

though we come away perhaps incrementally encouraged by the latest supply-demand eric.morgan@barclays.com