10y TIPS auction, ECB meeting: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

10y TIPS auction, ECB meeting: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

23 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

10y TIPS auction, ECB meeting

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

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US CPI: Today brings the 10y new-issue TIPS auction, which we previewed in Forever 21 redux.

As we detailed in the auction preview, there is a systematic tendency for real yields/breakevens

to rally coming out of the auction into month-end, and given the elevated level of real yields

currently, we see this as a very live scenario depending on how the demand at the auction

manifests.

In trades, we move up the stop in our long 5y5y CPI swap recommendation to 2.35% while

maintaining the target of 2.45% (with room to increase). We think that a downside scenario to

the position could emerge if market pricing for rate hikes were to become sufficiently aggressive

(the market-implied probability of a July hike has risen to nearly 35% at time of writing) as to