OW Upgrade: Growth Outlook Intact; Attractive Valuation, With Life Insurance Investment Uncertainty Reflected

Research evidence excerpt

OW Upgrade: Growth Outlook Intact; Attractive Valuation, With Life Insurance Investment Uncertainty Reflected

IdeaM

Upgrade to OW

We upgrade to OW and revise our target price from US$24 to US$23

We upgrade from EW to OW while lowering our price target to US$23 from US$24. We

continue to view the company as a high-growth business, forecasting a three-year CAGR of

18.9% for revenue and 19.1% for contribution profit. We have applied a larger discount

than previously to reflect uncertainty surrounding its investment in the life insurance

business. Accordingly, we have increased the discount rate used in our valuation

framework, and apply an EV/GP multiple of 6x (vs. our previous valuation range of 5x-7x).

In our discussions with global investors, a common observation has been that the

company had not previously highlighted life insurance as a strategic priority. While we

believe PayPay may ultimately seek to broaden its product and service offerings and

potentially enhance its asset management capabilities through this investment (although

details remain limited at this stage), many investors appear to view the transaction as a

slight departure from the investment strategy typically expected of a US-listed growth

company. We believe this mismatch in expectations could continue to weigh on valuation

multiples in the near term.

Expect guidance beat in F3/27

The company provides both quarterly and full-year guidance for revenue and EBITDA. For

F3/27, management targets 20.3% YoY revenue growth (median) and 23.7% YoY EBITDA

growth (median), but we expect progress to track ahead of plan. We also forecast 1Q

results to come in near the upper end of company guidance (we forecast adjusted EBITDA

of ¥32.25bn, versus the company's guidance range of ¥30.5bn–¥32.5bn). This view is