New Upside Price Risks Amid Red Sea Tensions

Research evidence excerpt

New Upside Price Risks Amid Red Sea Tensions

Commodities Research

22 July 2026 | 11:01PM EDT

OIL ANALYST

n We keep our 2026Q4 Brent forecast unchanged at $80, assuming de-escalation Daan Struyven

+1(212)357-4172 |

by Q4, while highlighting new upside price risks. daan.struyven@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n New upside price risks. Houthis claiming strikes on 2 tankers transiting through Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

the Red Sea and another decline in Kazakhstan exports (Exhibit 4) amid +1(646)446-3905yulia.grigsby@gs.com|

Russia-Ukraine escalation further tilt risks to our near-term price forecast to the

Alexandra Paulus

upside. Oil flows through the Bab-al-Mandab (BaM) Strait have averaged nearly +1(212)902-7111 |

alexandra.paulus@gs.com

9mb/d over the past month, including nearly 4mb/d of BaM flows that might be Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

difficult to re-route if Hormuz, BaM and Suez shipping frictions emerged Filippo Cuscito

+44(20)7051-9073 |

together (Exhibit 1). Oil loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Red Sea port have filippo.cuscito@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

remained stable over the past 7 days at around a high 5mb/d level (Exhibit 3).

n Keeping our $80 Brent forecast for 2026Q4. Our unchanged baseline reflects

price support from lower Mideast output in H2 (Exhibit 5), balanced by downside

price pressure from stronger-than-expected Mideast output in June and weaker

demand in China, South Korea, and the Mideast (Exhibit 6). We expect WTI to

average $76 in 2026Q4.

n Summer tightening. We expect prices to hold most of their recent gains through

July and August as global (Exhibit 7) and OECD commercial stocks draw further

for three reasons. First, Mideast production is likely to fall in July.1 Second,

demand should find support from summer travel (Exhibit 8).