Macquarie Group (MQG.AX): 1Q27 in-line, but strong 2Q needed to meet expectations; Maintain Sell

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie Group (MQG.AX): 1Q27 in-line, but strong 2Q needed to meet expectations; Maintain Sell

Goldman Sachs Macquarie Group (MQG.AX)

not identified as a driver of the growth within Commodities. We believe this reflects

the size of MQG’s oil business relative to the broader commodities business unit.

Furthermore, the division has maintained its momentum in asset realizations within

asset finance, following on from the A$0.3 billion in divestments achieved in the

second half of FY26.

n MacCap’s NPC was up on the pcp driven by higher investment income — related to

asset realisations — as well as brokerage income which likely benefited from strong

equity markets. The performance was partly offset by lower advisory fees on the

back of a strong pcp. This performance diverged from the trend seen among major

US investment banks, which recently reported a surge in advisory income. This

reflects Macquarie’s strategic focus on the middle market, while US peers capitalized

on a wave of mega-cap activity. Elsewhere, MacCap’s private credit portfolio was

A$27.2bn, which was in in-line with the Mar-26 update, suggesting that broader

concerns about the private credit market may have slowed deployment and growth

of the portfolio.

Overall 1Q27 performance was in-line, setting up an improved 2Q27 to meet VA

consensus expectations. Today’s update was broadly in-line with consensus

expectations across all the business units. However, a stronger 2Q27 seems required to

meet consensus 1H27 expectations. The second quarter will benefit the sale of

Macquarie Air Finance, but improvements in advisory fees, performance fee realisations,

equity realisations and commodities trading revenues will be required to meet

expectations.

We remain Sell rated on MQG with an unchanged 12m TP of A$220.75.