Moody’s Corp. (MCO): 2Q strength leveraged to structural debt issuance and analytics tailwinds; Reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Moody’s Corp. (MCO): 2Q strength leveraged to structural debt issuance and analytics tailwinds; Reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs Moody’s Corp. (MCO)

34.4% y/y, while MIS recurring revenue grew 6.3%, with MCO-rated debt issuance

volumes up 33%. Moody’s Analytics (MA) revenue increased 4.2% y/y in 2Q, above our

forecast of 2.6% but below consensus of 4.8%, with growth of 2.4% in Decision

Solutions (+12% OCC), 2.8% in Research & Insights and 8.8% in Data & Information. MA

revenue grew 8% organically. MA ARR growth was 9% in 2Q, up from 8% growth in the

prior quarter.

EBITDA margins and EPS outperformed. EBITDA margins expanded 440 bps y/y to

55.3%, driven by operating leverage and cost management, partially offset by ongoing

investments, and came above our estimate of 53.7% and consensus of 53.6%. MIS

EBITDA margins were 68.3%, up 410 bps y/y, while MA EBITDA margins were 33.6%, up

150 bps. EPS of $4.68 surpassed our estimate of $4.33 and consensus of $4.26. MCO

repurchased approximately $2.2bn of shares YTD.

2Q 2026 Positives / Negatives

Positives:

n Rated debt issuance accelerated and outlook improved. Credit market activity

remained robust in 2Q, supporting broad-based issuance growth and a higher

full-year issuance outlook from MCO. MIS-rated debt issuance increased 33% y/y in

2Q, accelerating from 6% in 1Q, with broad-based strength across investment grade

(+17%), high yield (+23%), leveraged loans (+53%), structured finance (+43%),

financial institutions (+29%) and PPIF (44%). MCO raised its full-year 2026 rated

debt issuance growth outlook from low-single-digits to mid-single-digits, reflecting

positive momentum in data center, banking, private credit and infrastructure-related

financing.

n MIS revenue growth supported by multiple structural tailwinds. MIS revenue rose