Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK): 2Q beat; Lower-than-expected RASM and questions on Hawaii recovery the focus

Research evidence excerpt

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK): 2Q beat; Lower-than-expected RASM and questions on Hawaii recovery the focus

Goldman Sachs Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)

significantly outpacing system capacity growth of approximately 10%. Alaska

announced the addition of four 737-800 freighter aircraft to their cargo fleet, with

service expected to begin in the first half of 2027. These additions will nearly double

Alaska’s dedicated cargo fleet to nine aircraft. Of the four aircraft, two will operate

in Alaska and two in Hawaii. The incremental freighters will be deployed within

Alaska’s own cargo network and are not associated with Amazon flying.

n Hawaii: Weaker-than-typical Hawaii revenue performance in 2Q was noted to be a 3

point headwind to system RASM, following historic rain storms/flooding in the state

in March which impacted spring break demand. Management expects a 2 to 3 point

headwind in 3Q, noting that weaker Hawaii RASM performance is also likely being

impacted by elevated industry capacity. It was noted the largest RASM headwind

across 2Q and 3Q in Hawaii was in March/April during/directly after the flooding

when there is usually elevated demand to travel to Hawaii for spring break. Looking

ahead to fall, management noted that current bookings imply a return to historical

demand and that September yields are accelerating, with booked yields for Hawaii in

the last week above system yields. Management also emphasized that Hawaii loyalty

trends are significantly outperforming the broader system, with new Hawaii

cardholders up 73% year-over-year and members in the Huakaʻi by Hawaiian

program up 34%.

n Balance Sheet: Alaska exited 2Q with $3.8 billion of total liquidity bolstered by $1

billion of incremental capital raised during the Q to strengthen liquidity amid