Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI): First Take: 2Q26 Beat and Raise; Watching Step-Up in Project Announcements in 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI): First Take: 2Q26 Beat and Raise; Watching Step-Up in Project Announcements in 2H26

Goldman Sachs Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI)

details, RNG contributions appear to be higher QoQ on better pricing and volumes.

n Products EBDA was $339m, above our forecast of $293m: Margins drove the beat

vs our estimate while volumes were softer than expected for gasoline, diesel, and jet

fuel volumes. Total refined product volumes were +5% QoQ but -5% YoY and came

in -8% vs GSe. Crude and condensate volumes were down 16% YoY but came in line

with GSe.

n Terminals EBDA was $309m, above our forecast of $293m: The beat was driven by

stronger margins from higher rates along with more favorable commodity pricing.

This was partially offset by softer bulk tonnage volumes and liquids utilization while

liquids leasable capacity was more in-line.

Quieter new project announcements - backlog down QoQ. There were only ~$200m

of project announcements this quarter (largely smaller gas projects). On products, there

were no new updates on the pre-FID Western Gateway project, though the team noted

they are targeting FID in the coming months (slower than initially expected given the

complexity of the arrangement, per management). The backlog decreased to $9.6b

(from $10.1b last quarter), as $500m of projects coming online were offset by more

modest new additions. That said, management noted the board contingently approved

~$400m of projects, which are in contract negotiations and will be added to the backlog

upon final contract execution. The blended return profile was unchanged at 5.6x.

Elsewhere, management noted for 2H26, that while the exact timing of commercializing

projects is challenging to predict, the team expects to announce at least $1b of projects