Updating Select Canada Oil Estimates and Raising Cenovus (Buy) Price Target Amid FCF Inflection

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Select Canada Oil Estimates and Raising Cenovus (Buy) Price Target Amid FCF Inflection

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 9:01PM EDT

AMERICAS ENERGY: OIL

Updating Select Canada Oil Estimates and Raising Cenovus (Buy) Price

Target Amid FCF Inflection

In this note, we update estimates for Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) Neil Mehta

+1(212)357-4042 | neil.mehta@gs.com

ahead of 2Q26 earnings to reflect mark-to-market commodity prices and refining Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

margins. Long-life inventory, robust free cash flow, and attractive shareholder Alexa Petrick

returns continue to support our positive structural view of Canadian Oils. This +1(917)343-9472alexa.petrick@gs.com|

quarter, we expect investor conversations to focus on recent wet weather impacts, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Lydia Gouldrefining margin capture, and light-heavy crude differentials, in addition to the +1(212)357-9778 | lydia.gould@gs.com

balance between debt reduction and share repurchase levels amid volatile Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Knightcommodity prices. On our updated estimates, we highlight strong upside to CVE and Josiah | +1(212)357-9806

see potential for the company to achieve the next net debt target earlier than josiah.knight@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

anticipated. We look for a volume and free cash flow inflection as the West White

Rose project comes online later this year, with potential upside from Christina Lake

North, driving ~37% total return from current levels. Please see within for further

details.

Cenovus Energy

n We focus on progress at West White Rose, which remains on-track for first oil by

the end of 3Q26, expanding volumes and free cash flow through 2028 toward

peak net production of ~45 kbd. At Christina Lake North, integration runs ahead