2Q26 EBIT Miss Driven by Swedish Forest/CE Sawmills

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 EBIT Miss Driven by Swedish Forest/CE Sawmills

Update

July 23, 2026 06:52 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MStora Enso Oyj | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EBIT Miss Driven by Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystSwedish Forest/CE Sawmills Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com

Stora Enso Oyj (STERV.HE, STERV FH)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

ADRSEOAY.PK

Unchanged Modest shortfall Largely unchanged Paper & Packaging | Finland

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Price target €11.20

Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) €10.03

52-Week Range €12.26-8.50

Key Takeaways Mkt cap, curr (mn) €7,921

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €3,446

Adjusted EBIT a 10% miss vs consensus and 7% miss vs MSe EV, curr (mn)* €11,036

Miss driven by Swedish Forest and Central European sawmills, which may bring * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

investor scrutiny amidst Forest separation and sawmill strategic review

Net debt in line when adjusting for €1bn hybrid bond sale which is treated as

equity

Q3 outlook comments; Oulu ramp-up costs to continue at Q2 pace, maintenance

up €40-50mn q/q

We expect the shares to underperform the sector at the open

2Q26 adjusted EBIT 10% below consensus: Stora Enso's 2Q26 adj. EBIT of

€160mn, was 10% below Infront Data consensus (7% below MSe). At the divisional,

the miss was mainly attributed to the Other segment with EBIT coming in at €7mn,

well below consensus/MSe at €28-32mn. This was due to lower wood prices in

Sweden and lower margin in the Central European wood products operations. EPS