Alstom (ALSO.PA): Estimates updated post 1Q26/27 orders/sales

Research evidence excerpt

Alstom (ALSO.PA): Estimates updated post 1Q26/27 orders/sales

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 10:48PM BST

Daniela Costa

+44(20)7774-8354 |

daniela.costa@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Meihan Yang

+44(20)7051-6601 |

meihan.x.yang@gs.com

We expect Alstom consensus estimates to move down LSD on the back of

Ines Lefranc1Q26/27. Orders missed Visible Alpha consensus by 14%, as base orders came at +44(20)7051-8710 |

the lower end of historical 1Q levels due to a lack of Systems orders and muted ines.lefranc@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

Signalling orders. Sales were also slightly below expectations (c.2%) with the only

division beating being Services. Guidance is maintained, and the company noted it is

focused on a progressive adj. EBIT margin expansion towards 8-10% and cash

generation improvement. Consensus is slightly ahead of guided organic sales growth

(c.5.8% vs c.5%), and we would expect the current order miss to put some pressure

on that estimate.

Our adj EBIT for the next 3 years comes down by c.5%, driving our target price

reduction to €15.5 (was €16.5). The lower rolling stock orders vs our expectation

drive us to continue to see significant uncertainty in the FY26/27 FCF guidance (we

model -163mn under Alstom definition). Our target price continues to be based on

our sector-relative rolling calendar 6 months 2027/28 EV/IC to ROIC/WACC

methodology. We remain Sell rated.

While order trends at Alstom tend to be very idiosyncratic, and the company sees the

muted orders as more of a timing of tenders matter than a sign of slower industry

fundamentals, we see the lower-than-expected orders as a slight negative

read-across for Siemens and Knorr Bremse.

Key risks to our view and target price: (1) higher-than-expected down payments