Holding Up: Texas Instruments | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Holding Up: Texas Instruments | North America

n. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

TI reported a solid quarter, but was up against heightened expectations going 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

into the print. We had expected TI to have a strong quarter, and raised our JunQ/ Q1 1.28 - 1.68a 2.09 2.31

SepQ estimates to above-seasonality earlier this week, primarily based on positive Q2 1.41 - 2.14a 2.11 2.36

Q3 1.48 2.18 2.43 2.40 2.66

read-throughs from our Distributor Survey. While the company reported above Q4 1.27 2.10 2.31 2.26 2.48

seasonal q/q growth for both qtrs and above cons GM% – prior to the quarter we e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

believe investors were looking for DD+ sequential revenue growth or confidence in

meaningful GM% expansion. We view the quarter as broadly in line with elevated

expectations given the GM% print and modest guide-up, but with the bar already

high, the slight stock pullback was not surprising.

That said, we acknowledge the recent strength for TI, and our CY26/27 ests

come up by 9%/11% primarily on the stronger JunQ print, as we had already

given above-seasonal credit to SepQ. Our view is that this time appears to be

proving different – recall last JunQ the recovery was narrow and expectations

missed after a false start. This quarter, automotive inflected hard (mid-teens YoY,

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with+HSD (q/q) and mgmt characterized demand as "everywhere." The broadening seems

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

to be holding up, but durability post-restocking (particularly in auto) and the GM% investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of