Waste Connections (WCN) Q2:26: Guidance raised, but we see further upside to FY26 numbers

Research evidence excerpt

Waste Connections (WCN) Q2:26: Guidance raised, but we see further upside to FY26 numbers

23 July 2026

Connor Cerniglia, CFA

+1 917 344 8472

US Business Services connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com

Waste Connections Inc. Bridget Alkin

+1 917 344 8359

Rating bridget.alkin@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform

Price Target

WCN 205.00 USD

Waste Connections (WCN) Q2:26: Guidance raised, but we see

further upside to FY26 numbers

Entering earnings, the data suggested Waste Connections had the most upside to its FY2026

Close Date 22 Jul 2026

guidance and was our top pick in Waste, and was the likeliest candidate to increase guidance.

WCN Close Price (USD) 167.90

Yesterday, management increased FY26 numbers, albeit modestly with sales and EBITDA

Price Target (USD) 205.00

guidance increasing by 70bps—we continue to see upside to the updated FY2026 numbers,

Upside/(Downside) 22%

likely another 1% on sales and EBITDA. Results were generally healthy overall: a modest top-

52-Week Range 191.91/146.89

line beat driven by M&A, with organic solid waste growth the lone soft spot, missing by -40bps.

SPX 7,498.96

EBITDA margins were in line, and EPS beat ($1.50 vs. Street $1.36) driven largely by a gain in

FYE Dec

other income. As for read-throughs to peers, we believe a guidance increase is less likely for

Div Yield 0.8%

Waste Management, though possible for Republic Services. Volumes were slightly weaker than

Market Cap (USD) (M) 42,600

expected, suggesting industry Residential volumes are still taking time to recover, a headwind

EV (USD) (M) 52,221

that could also affect Waste Management and Republic Services.

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Waste Connections’s Q2:26 results were healthy with a beat on the top and bottom Absolute (%) (4.3) 9.4 (1.3) (9.1)

line ($2.56bn/$1.50 vs.