THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: A Look Back After the 2026 Final

Research evidence excerpt

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: A Look Back After the 2026 Final

Goldman Sachs The World Cup and Economics

forecast.

Spain benefitted from having the highest Elo rating—our preferred team ranking system

and the key variable in our model—going into the tournament, signalling the strength of

the team as a whole. France clearly benefitted from exceptional scoring talent.

Argentina was, according to our model, penalised by a “winner’s slump” factor capturing

the tendency of reigning champions to underperform. Given they reached the final, that

mechanism was probably not too strong this time, although winning back-to-back World

Cups remains a very rare feat that was last accomplished by Brazil more than 60 years

ago. Argentina was supported by a strong Elo rating and a generally lucky draw. The

development of the tournament likely validated this view, given that the average

pre-tournament ranking of the teams Argentina had to face in the knock-out stage to

get to the final was substantially worse than for Spain.

We had flagged that Germany had the unluckiest draw, largely due to an elevated chance

of facing France in the round of 16. Given their early exit against Paraguay (a team

ranked 22nd before the tournament according to Elo ratings) in the round of 32,

however, the disappointing German performance in the tournament was mostly of their

own making.

England was penalised by geographical factors given an elevated likelihood of facing the

Mexican hosts in high-altitude Mexico City and by their historical tendency to

underperform their fundamentals in World Cups. We think the inclusion of geographical

factors in our model was validated by how close the Mexico-England game was despite

the large talent differential. Whether England’s loss against Argentina in the semifinal