Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS): Revising estimates post 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS): Revising estimates post 2Q26

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 10:13PM GST

We update our estimates for Akzo Nobel following 2Q26 results (22 July). Our FY26 Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

+44(20)7552-5984 |

EBITDA estimate increases modestly to €1.42bn (in-line with Visible Alpha consensus georgina.fraser@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

but below company guidance for >€1.47bn). For 3Q we now expect more resilient

Gabriel Simoes

margins on a more moderate cost inflation impact (Akzo now guides for 2H cost +44(20)7051-6922 |

inflation in the teens, vs. mid-teens at the time of 1Q). Management anticipates gabriel.simoes@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

+MSD% pricing in 2H to offset this; we forecast pricing of +5%/+8% in 3Q/4Q Marcus von Scheele

respectively. We also update our model to reflect the company’s updated guidance +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

for capex (~€300mn in 2026 and the mid-term) and identified items (from €170mn Goldman Sachs International

Wardto €250mn to include merger costs), the latter driving a lower FY26 reported EPS Thomas | +44(20)7051-2527

estimate. thomas.ward@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

Decorative Paints: 2Q Adj. EBITDA came in 9% below our expectations on softer

volumes (-4%) and weaker profitability; growth was pricing-led (+5% in 2Q26). We

expect this dynamic (volume softness in EMEA and Asia offset by pricing) to persist

into 2H. We now expect margins to hold broadly stable in 3Q (vs. a deterioration

previously). Our FY Adj. EBITDA for the division is largely unchanged, with better 3Q

profitability and further 2H pricing offsetting the weaker 2Q.

Performance Coatings: Performance Coatings 2Q Adj. EBITDA came in 3% ahead on

more resilient volumes (+2% vs.