LATAM Today: July 22, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 22, 2026

Economics Research

22 July 2026 | 7:57AM EDT

RamosARGENTINA Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Data This Week: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaToday: Economic Activity Index (May); we forecast a 2.5% year-on-year increase in Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

real economic activity in May. Growth has been choppy at the start of the year, but sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the performance of the economy was, in general, better than expected in the first Santiago Tellez

quarter of 2026. In April, activity in the primary sector continued to drive growth +1(212)855-0367 |

santiago.tellez@gs.com

with a strong performance of mining and agriculture. Secondary and tertiary sector Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

activity continue to lag.

SA

BRAZIL

New 25% Section 301 Tariffs Take Effect With No Near-Term Retaliation

The US Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 25% tariff on imports from Brazil come

into effect today (July 22). The USTR new tariffs exclude more than 2,100 items

including a number of key items such as coffee, orange juice, beef, rare earths,

selected metals, fertilizers, pharma products and inputs, some wood/metal

products, and aircraft parts.

We estimate that the 25% Brazil specific Section 301 tariffs are binding on 26% of

imports from Brazil (US$10.2bn). Considering the new tariffs and previous tariff

packages (metals, vehicles & parts, etc.) the estimated overall US effective tariff rate

on imports from Brazil is 16.8pp, the second highest after China. This calculation

assumes that the proposed 12.5% forced-labor Section 301 tariffs will replace the

10% Section 122 tariffs upon expiration on July 24, 2026.

The Brazilian authorities were not successful in negotiating visible tariff relief since