Monthly Data Book US Chemicals & Agriculture

Research evidence excerpt

Monthly Data Book US Chemicals & Agriculture

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

July 23, 2026

US Chemicals Monthly Data Book – Key Conclusions

Chemical railcar volume is up +2.9% Y/Y YTD. Chemical railcar loads were up +2.9% YTD in the most recent week (vs. +1.5% in 2025). This represents a decrease

from the +3.5% YTD increase result last month (vs +1.8% in 2025).

Leading indicators of industrial production falls in Europe and rises in US and China. PMI levels in the US fell to 53.3 in June (vs. 54 in May, 52.7 in April, and 52.7

in March). China’s PMI rose to 50.3 in June (vs 50 in May, 50.3 in April, and 50.4 in March). PMI levels in the Eurozone fell to 51.4 in June (vs 51.6 in May, 52.2 in April,

and 51.6 in March).

North America Polyethylene (PE) market update: spot domestic prices were -2cpp week-over-week (FOB Houston, railcar), and spot export prices were flat week-over-

week (FCA Houston, railcar). Demand reportedly improved due to precautionary buying related to geopolitical uncertainty. Commentary around export market prices

indicated that some buyers saw increases this past week amid producer offers ~1-3cp higher compared to last week. Export demand reportedly increased from Southeast

Asia and Europe in particular. Sources reported that increases in CFR China prices are providing additional export opportunities out of North America, which may have

contributed to increased demand into these regions. In Mexico, demand was reportedly limited and is expected by sources to gradually pick up in coming weeks. Supply

commentary was mixed. Market participants noted that producers may be restricting offers to create the perception of short supply, as there were indications of limited

availability for some grades.