Full Truck Alliance Co (YMM US): Buy: Framing the key debate

Research evidence excerpt

Full Truck Alliance Co (YMM US): Buy: Framing the key debate

%) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2

vs the industry average of 40%. In a 2025 survey conducted by Renmin University of

truckers in China, those who used an online platform earned more income than those 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

who do not. Thus, the next-month retention rate of truckers who respond to orders 16.00

exceeds 85% for FTA; 2) the take rate only accounts for a low-single-digit percentage of

11.30

ASP, when comparing against fuel, toll, depreciation, insurance, and maintenance costs,

which account for 70-80% of ASP; 3) FTA has been consistently growing order fulfilled by 6.60

07/25 01/26 07/26

each trucker on the platform, as shippers continue to value the higher-cost efficiencies Target price: 14.80 High: 14.00 Low: 7.54 Current: 9.25

than offline middlemen. We conduct scenario analyses (Exhibits 1, 2) based on the unit

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

economics of a sample FTL trip (c500km, 20 or 12 tonnes of load, for a 6.8m flatbed

truck). Conclusion: If fuel price and freight rate are unchanged, increasing the take rate to

Ritchie Sun*, CFA

2.5% (from 1.8%) has a very limited impact on truckers’ margins. The negative impact of Analyst, Internet Research

a 10% increase in fuel price on truckers’ margins is more meaningful than when the take The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk

rate is raised to 2.5%. Our analysis suggests that a 10% fuel cost hike can be passed +852 2822 4392

through with a 4-6% freight rate hike to shippers to avoid the impact on truckers. Charlene Liu*

Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia Pacific

2) Regulatory concerns: Investors appear concerned that Huolala’s monetization rate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation