Oil markets: Hormuz traffic falls as US-Iran ceasefire frays

Research evidence excerpt

Oil markets: Hormuz traffic falls as US-Iran ceasefire frays

22 July 2026

Oil markets EquitiesGlobal & Commodities

Hormuz traffic falls as US-Iran ceasefire frays

◆ Hormuz traffic falls back to April-May lows after US-Iran Kim Fustier*

ceasefire frays. MoU did not settle who manages the strait Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

◆ Products tighter than crude with Hormuz and Russian flows +44 20 3359 2136

missing. Diesel cracks hit record highs, gasoline rallies Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ Red Sea transit risks overstated as Suez is an alternative. ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

Longer term, bypass pipeline routes appear necessary +44 20 7992 3302

Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

The calm that followed the mid-June US-Iran MoU has given way to a renewed test HSBC Bank plc sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

of the oil market’s resilience. Brent is back above USD90/b, just weeks after falling to +44 207 9910569

pre-conflict lows around USD70/b. Since 7-8 July, the ceasefire has frayed as Iranian Evan Li*

attacks on vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz prompted US retaliatory strikes. The Head, Asia Energy Transition Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

core issue remains unresolved: whether passage is administered, and by whom. In evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6619

hindsight, the more traffic was rising through the US-managed Omani lane, the less

this outcome suited Iran. Lilyanna Yang, CFA Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

Near-term direction hinges on whether diplomacy can restore predictable transit lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com

within the MoU’s 60-day negotiation window to mid-August. A renewed agreement +1 212 525 0990