GS Utilities Daily: Iberdrola: Solid quarter, guidance "qualitatively" improved // Enagas H1 results: FY guidance reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

GS Utilities Daily: Iberdrola: Solid quarter, guidance "qualitatively" improved // Enagas H1 results: FY guidance reiterated

Goldman Sachs GS Utilities Daily

Engie: H1 2026 Preview: We see solid execution with net income upgrades to come

Engie will report its H1 2026 results on July 31. Including nuclear, we forecast H1 2026

COI at €5.4bn (€5.2bn ex nuclear) versus €5.6bn (€5.1bn ex nuclear) in H1 2025. The

lower COI is owing to a reduced contribution from nuclear, while COI ex nuclear slightly

increases due to Networks (new contribution from UK Electricity Distribution), B2C and

Renewables. We revise the cadence of our quarterly forecasts for this year to reflect

commodity prices, weather and higher B2C. Our 2Q26 EPS increases to €0.49 from

€0.30. Our full-year 2026-30 EPS estimates unchanged. We expect Engie to reiterate

guidance for FY 2026, which stands at €4.6bn to €5.2bn at the net income level.

However, we see net income upside as we go through the year. We believe investor focus

will be on: (1) portfolio exposure to the Middle East conflict; (2) nuclear discussions with

the Belgian government; (3) progress on disposals outlined in the strategic plan; and (4)

any update on Engie’s Datacenter positioning. We see the recently introduced FY 2028

guidance as representing the first year in which headwinds from commodity price

normalisation materially ease, providing a clearer view of the company’s longer-term

earnings growth potential. Engie trades at a FY2028E P/E of 12.9x (a c.15% discount to

the sector) with an EPS CAGR of c.6% pa beyond 2028, on our estimates. This is with a

portfolio that is becoming progressively more regulated and contracted over time. As we

look out to FY 2030, we see a potential c.€8bn of balance sheet headroom, at Engie’s