India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific: Growth Holds Up; Watchful of Macro Stability Risks

Research evidence excerpt

India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific: Growth Holds Up; Watchful of Macro Stability Risks

Foundation

July 22, 2026 11:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private LimitedMIndia Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook Upasana Chachra

| Asia Pacific Chief India Economist

Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246

Bani Gambhir

EconomistGrowth Holds Up; Watchful of Bani.Gambhir@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3027

Shreya Singh

EconomistMacro Stability Risks Shreya.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1521

High-frequency indicators remained resilient in June, with growth

broadening to domestic & external demand. We remain watchful

of price & external stability risks. The RBI could bring forward its

rate hike cycle as we see upside risks to growth & inflation.

Growth: High-frequency growth data for June maintained momentum, indicating

limited supply-side impact from the conflict. Vehicle registrations continued to

record double-digit growth, while bank credit growth stayed strong (18.6%) and

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power demand continued to grow at 11% for the second consecutive month.

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External demand also remained robust with non-oil exports growing at a healthy

Path to Scale (20 Jul 2026)

pace.

India Economics: Good Trade Deficit Widens to

Inflation: Headline CPI accelerated to 4.4% YoY in June vs. 3.9% in May, driven by 5-Month High (13 Jul 2026)

higher prices for food (5.1%) and fuel (4.5%), while the second-order effect was India Economics: CPI Breaches 4% Mark in June

limited, as evident in largely steady trends in core (3.9%) and core core (core ex (13 Jul 2026)

jewelry) (2.5%) CPI, which edged up a tad. Headline WPI rose to an all-time high on India Economics: Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro