Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: CRE Growth Headwinds Drive Estimates Lower

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: CRE Growth Headwinds Drive Estimates Lower

Update

July 22, 2026 09:02 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMBank Ozk | North America Manan Gosalia

Equity Analyst

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4092

Bank Ozk (OZK.O, OZK US)

Midcap Banks | United States of AmericaResult: CRE Growth Headwinds

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $56.00Drive Estimates Lower Shr price, close (Jul 21, 2026) $50.78

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $5,537

52-Week Range $53.66-42.37

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged In-line Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

RESG paydowns drive lower NIM, NII and loan growth for

2026/2027. Increasing our forward NCO estimates slightly after

another quarter of elevated losses. Decreasing 26/27 EPS -3%

Decreasing our 2026/27 loan growth estimates -2% on higher RESG

repayments...

• EOP loan growth was down -1.3% Q/Q, driven by elevated RESG repayments.

2Q26 repayments were ~$3B, and management noted that higher repayment

levels will continue through 2026 and 2027.

• While CIB continues to show momentum and partially offset these

paydowns, miss in the quarter and forward commentary on headwinds to

RESG fundings/paydowns drives our loan growth estimates lower. We

decrease average loan balances by -2% for both 2026 and 2027.

• We model loan growth of +5% in 2026, in line with OZK's mid-single digits

guide. For 2027 were modelling loans up +9%, below management guide of

+10-11%

...Which drives our NII lower. We decrease NII -1% in 2026/27

• On the funding side, IB deposit costs should move higher from here as OZK

looks to fund 2H26 loan growth.