Thoughts post GEV results. Supply demand in focus, but current order pricing dynamics point to a higher ENR Gas service EBIT this cycle.

Research evidence excerpt

Thoughts post GEV results. Supply demand in focus, but current order pricing dynamics point to a higher ENR Gas service EBIT this cycle.

IdeaMlikely to decrease QoQ (similar to GEV). Putting this together, we think it is

unlikely that ENR has to positively pre-release its results as in prior quarters. We

continue to see 3Q26 results as less of a positive catalyst, and think the focus

will quickly shift to the 11th November FY26 results and new targets.

Siemens Energy - we keep our Overweight rating, with risk reward still skewed

positively. Following today's move lower in the share price, Siemens Energy is

trading on 12.4x 2028 EV/EBITA. This is in-line with the broader European Cap

Goods sector, which is undemanding given we still expect >20% EBITA growth per

year for Siemens Energy in 2029 and 2030. Siemens Energy's current 2028 multiple

is also around half of GEV's current 2028 EV/EBITA multiple of 25.6x.

Into year end, we see a solid catalyst path where 1) risk is to the upside on

Siemens Energy's Gas orders for 3Q26 and pricing commentary should remain

strong, 2) they will issue new targets for 2030 where we expect some upgrades

(MSD) to consensus EBITA, 3) there is scope for Siemens Energy to continue running

share buybacks ahead of the originally planned €2bn per year level, and 4) we

expect continued active portfolio management, initially focused on Transformation

of Industries (see Siemens Energy's comments on their 2Q26 pre-close call, but

clearly down the line there will be continued debates about the fit of other parts of

the portfolio including the wind division.

Exhibit 1: GEV vs. ENR: total gas turbine commitment (in GW). A further healthy

step-up for GEV, which we think gives them a stronger foundation for their latest

capacity increase.