Off the 2Q26 Call: Cautious Optimism Against A Tough Market Backdrop

Research evidence excerpt

Off the 2Q26 Call: Cautious Optimism Against A Tough Market Backdrop

Update

July 22, 2026 09:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSvenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Off the 2Q26 Call: Cautious Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystOptimism Against A Tough Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (SCAb.ST, SCABMarket Backdrop

SS)

Paper & Packaging | Sweden

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Equal-weight

SCA's call highlighted some cautious optimism into Q3, though we note Industry View In-Line

Price target SKr 110.00

consensus expectations are already pricing that in. Shr price, close (Jul 21, 2026) SKr 101.15

52-Week Range SKr 134.05- 96.02

Most encouraging messaging on containerboard outlook, while Forest, Wood, Mkt cap, curr (mn) SKr 71,042

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* SKr 15,404

Pulp appear more subdued.

EV, curr (mn)* SKr 85,106

Renewable energy remains a wild card due to biofuel earnings upside prospects * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Focus remains on cash flow generation and deleveraging.

Forest: Highlighted Q2 earnings headwinds due to increased fuel/forest

management costs and lower harvesting of own volumes. MS remains 5% below

2026 consensus EBITDA expectations, with Forest accounting for ~50% of the

delta. On forest book value, SCA noted very limited transactions in H1 with one

provider showing valuations slightly down and the other one slightly up.

Cost outlook: In fibre, Q2 wood costs went down 2%-3% q/q, for Q3 the company

expects another 3-5% aggregate decline between sawlogs and pulpwood, and

further decline in Q4. Meanwhile. chemical costs were up a bit in Q2 and expected