OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU): Operational resilience meets regulatory one-offs

Research evidence excerpt

OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU): Operational resilience meets regulatory one-offs

Equity Research

22 July 2026 | 8:13AM GST

OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU): Operational resilience meets regulatory

one-offs

2Q26 preview: Strong performance tempered by regulatory and FX headwinds Kazim Andac

+971(4)214-9958 |

We see strong operational momentum in 2Q26, with robust lending growth — kazim.andac@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

particularly in Hungary and a recovering Uzbekistan — supporting Group NII growth

Ashwath P T, CFA

despite flattish NIMs. Core revenues should also benefit from a seasonal and +971(4)376-3439 | ashwath.pt@gs.com

structural rebound in fee income, while a leaner cost base following the Goldman Sachs International

Gokul Vinayak Lnon-recurrence of 1Q levies supports PPP growth. Our PPP estimate excluding other +1(332)245-7976 | gokul.l@gs.com

income is 3% above Visible Alpha Consensus, highlighting resilient core banking Goldman Sachs India SPL

trends, although including other income we are 3% below the Street. We lower 2026

net income by c.6% on one-off 2Q26 provisions and lower other income, while

raising 2027-28E estimates by c.1% on lower cost assumptions. Following these

revisions, our 12-month price target increases to HUF 51,700 (from HUF 51,200).

One-off provisions weigh on earnings, but asset quality and capital remain sound

Bottom-line results will be weighed down by non-core items, primarily a substantial

>HUF 35bn one-off provision (GSe) tied to the Hungarian mortgage rate cap

extension. This charge, plus a c.3% FX translation headwind from HUF appreciation,

will pressure reported net profit, which we expect to decline sequentially. Despite a

slight CET1 ratio dip from RWA growth and the HUF 60bn buyback, we expect OTP