Novartis (NOVN.S): Strong 2Q26 beat, but high risk catalyst path keeps us cautious; remain Sell

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis (NOVN.S): Strong 2Q26 beat, but high risk catalyst path keeps us cautious; remain Sell

Goldman Sachs Novartis (NOVN.S)

headwinds has led to a structural reset in the growth rate, in our view, raising

uncertainty on the company’s ability to drive consistent earnings beats. Alongside

entering a heavy catalyst period in 2H’26, which is key to achieving its mid to

long-term ambitions, we believe that: (i) Novartis’s current valuation already gives

credit for some of these clinical read-outs being able to offset the significant generic

risk in the 2030s; and (ii) that more needs to be done from an M&A/BD perspective,

which comes with risk. Therefore, absent consistent earnings momentum and a

share price that we believe already gives credit for pipeline replacement, we remain

Sell rated.

n Key focus during the 2Q’26 call centered around pipeline progress, and the

shape of top and bottom-line growth for the remainder of 2026 following a beat

partly supported by phasing, stocking and better CMO sales. On pelacarsen, the

company reiterated the trial being minimally powered to show a 13-15% CVRR

benefit, with such a mid-teens benefit being sufficient to be seen as clinically

meaningful given the lack of treatment options for Lp(a) lowering (we believe a

13-15% benefit will be seen as disappointing by the market, particularly with

competitive assets with less frequent dosing coming in the future). On reminbrutinib

in MS, the company noted the importance of considering the impact on disability

progression as well as the reduction in ARR to ascertain the setting in which the drug

could be utilised (i.e. post, pre or in-line with B-cell antibodies). Management

pointed to blinded rates of safety and relapses providing confidence in the study