1H26 Results – 2026 guidance upgrade to be taken well

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Results – 2026 guidance upgrade to be taken well

Update

July 22, 2026 07:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+MNaturgy | Europe Arthur Sitbon, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Results – 2026 guidance Arthur.Sitbon@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +33 1 42 90 71-03

Marina Fuentes Juan

Research Associateupgrade to be taken well Marina.Fuentes.Juan@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2268

Robert Pulleyn

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4388

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Sarah E Lester, CFA

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Equity Analyst

consensus EPS Sarah.Lester@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0551

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Naturgy (NTGY.MC, NTGY SQ)

Utilities | Spain

Key Takeaways

Stock Rating Overweight

We expect a positive reaction from Naturgy shares following the group's 1H26 Industry View Attractive

Price target €32.00

results. Shr price, close (Jul 21, 2026) €28.50

52-Week Range €29.94-24.30

1H26 results are above expectations thanks to Networks, partly due to Mkt cap, curr (mn) €26,517

exceptional items in Spain and stronger contribution from Latam. Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €12,929

EV, curr (mn)* €40,949

The group raised its 2026 financial targets. Net income target goes up by 11%. * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

While it can be argued that a guidance upgrade was partly expected by the

market, we think that its magnitude is larger than what was anticipated.

We note that the new guidance floor of €2.1bn on 2026 net income is ~3% above

Visible Alpha consensus of €2.04bn.

Strong 1H26 results, although partly due to a net positive one-off in Spanish