2Q26 Production – Stronger Gold Offsets Weaker Silver

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Production – Stronger Gold Offsets Weaker Silver

Update

July 22, 2026 06:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFresnillo PLC | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Production – Stronger Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-8959

Carlos De Alba

Equity AnalystGold Offsets Weaker Silver Carlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4927

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Ferdinand Huber

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Adahna Ekoku

Key Takeaways Equity Analyst

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Gold production beat (+17%) offset silver miss (-7%) as compared to VA

consensus estimates. Fresnillo PLC (FRES.L, FRES LN)

Gold and Precious Metals | United Kingdom

In aggregate, we see mid-single digit upgrades to our 1H26 EBITDA forecast on

Stock Rating Underweight

the back of today's results. Industry View In-Line

Price target 2,090p

FY26 guidance parameters were kept broadly unchanged. Shr price, close (Jul 21, 2026) 2,566p

52-Week Range 4,472-1,371p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$25,438

2Q Silver Equivalent production beat by 3-6%; total silver missed 4-7%; gold Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$(1,790)

beat 14-17%. We calculate a Silver Equivalent output of 23.3 moz, 3-6% above EV, curr (mn)* US$26,130

Visible Alpha consensus and MSe. The miss in silver was mostly driven by the * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Ciénega mine (lower recoveries from oxides at the flotation plant post-sulphide