Colombia: Another Strong Activity Print in May; Boosting 2026 Growth Forecast by 30bp to 2.7%

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia: Another Strong Activity Print in May; Boosting 2026 Growth Forecast by 30bp to 2.7%

Economics Research

21 July 2026 | 2:02PM EDT

Colombia: Another Strong Activity Print in May; Boosting 2026 Growth

Forecast by 30bp to 2.7%

BOTTOM LINE: Activity maintains a solid momentum in Q2 after a weak 4Q25 and Santiago Tellez

+1(212)855-0367 |

slightly-below trend pace in Q1. The ISE real economic activity indicator expanded santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

by 0.7% mom sa in May, accelerating from 0.3% mom sa in the previous month, and

adding to the string of expansions since Dec. ‘25. The April activity level was

upgraded by 0.1pt. The headline reading increase was mostly driven by solid tertiary

activities (0.9% mom sa; services, energy supply, and commerce)—especially the

public administration sector after retroactive minimum wage payments to public

teachers and strong energy demand due to elevated temperatures. The secondary

sector also expanded (0.3% mom sa; manufacturing, construction), on the back of

normalizing manufacturing. Conversely, the primary sector (-0.1% mom sa;

agriculture, mining) contracted again on lower cattle production. Year on year, real

activity grew by 4.1%, above the consensus expectations for 2.9% yoy. With the May

reading, the statistical carry-over for 2Q2026 growth stands at a solid +1.8% qoq sa,

up from the 0.8% qoq sa in 1Q26 per the monthly indicator. The headline reading

masks an unbalanced growth profile, with strong services activities but softer

primary and secondary sectors, both of which have a negative Q2 growth carryover.

Folding in the upside surprise and the data activity revision, we upgrade our growth

forecast for Q2 by 30bp to 1.1% qoq sa, which mechanically raises our 2026 growth