Weaker housing demand exposing TPK, downgrading to UW

Research evidence excerpt

Weaker housing demand exposing TPK, downgrading to UW

Equity Research

22 July 2026

UK Building Materials & Construction

Weaker housing demand exposing

TPK, downgrading to UW

We see risk to H2 volumes across the UK materials/ UK Housebuilding & Construction

merchanting space, primarily driven by new build demand NEUTRAL Unchanged

weakness. We downgrade TPK to UW; we see risk that the UK Housebuilding & Construction

Emily Biddulphstock could de-rate into earnings downgrades. Market share

gains and M&A-driven growth mean we stay OW on HWDN +44emily.biddulph@barclays.com(0)20 3555 2947

and BREE. Barclays, UK

Shruti Hanumant Dhumal

+91 (0)22 6175 1786Risks to H2 volumes across the materials / Merchanting space: Housebuilders under our

shrutiha.dhumal@barclays.com

coverage are currently adjusting their rates of construction to match a recent decline in order Barclays, UK

intake, meaning we expect a slowing in demand for construction materials in H2 vs H1 (albeit

against a weak comp for H2 last year, which was impacted by budget uncertainty). Read-across

from other companies in the space, along with lower housing transactions and consumer

confidence also suggest scope for a slightly softer RMI market.

We downgrade Travis Perkins to UW (from OW) and lower our TP to 463p from 850p: We

had previously viewed Travis Perkins as a cyclical recovery and management change story. We

now worry that weaker market conditions will make 2026 another year of aggressive price

competition in the specialist merchanting space. We are particularly concerned that gross

margins could come under competitive pressure again, a risk we believe is increasing, as in

recent history this has occurred against a backdrop of weak market volumes and increased

materials inflation, like we expect for H2.