Government Bond Demand: How Current Trends Are Shaping Future Market Dynamics

Research evidence excerpt

Government Bond Demand: How Current Trends Are Shaping Future Market Dynamics

Foundation

July 22, 2026 05:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGlobal Rates Strategy | Europe Maria Chiara Russo

Strategist

Government Bond Demand: Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7677-3499

Matthew Hornbach

StrategistHow Current Trends Are Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Shaping Future Market Luca Salford

Luca.Salford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1337Dynamics

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Martin W Tobias, CFA

Central banks are retreating as structural buyers just as Strategist

sovereign issuance remains elevated. We combine and reconcile Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076

multiple ownership, flow and supervisory datasets to map who Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Fabio Bassanin, CFA

is absorbing supply across the euro area, US, UK and Japan - by Strategist

investor type and, where possible, maturity. This allows us to Fabio.Bassanin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1869

identify where demand is resilient, where it is increasingly price- Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Koichi Sugisaki

sensitive, and where supply may require higher yields or a Strategist

steeper curve to clear. Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428

Hiromu Uezato

Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431Key Takeaways

Our framework combines and reconciles multiple ownership, flow and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Eli P Carter

supervisory datasets to identify who is absorbing sovereign supply as central Strategist

banks step back. This allows us to distinguish between markets supported by Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703