South Africa Fund Manager Survey: Cautious for now, constructive beyond

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South Africa Fund Manager Survey: Cautious for now, constructive beyond

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South Africa Fund Manager Survey

Cautious for now, constructive beyond

Equity Strategy

#345: cautious near term, but constructive further out 17 July 2026

Market +12Ms: All-Share index 124k (versus 125k last month). Total returns*: equities Equity Strategy

13% (a marked decline from 17% last month); R2035 7% (8% last month). Current SA South Africa

equity conviction is weak, with a net 18% of investors OW, down from 57% last month Andreas Bruckner >>

and the lowest since May last year (key risks: earnings, policy shift to the left, weak Investment Strategist

consumer). Yet, optimism prevails on the 12-month outlook, with net equity bulls rising MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1306

from 50% to 64%. The decline in equities since February leaves plenty of opportunities, andreas.bruckner@bofa.com

with 82% seeing more Buys than Sells in the market, close to a 17-year high, but for

now the majority prefers to maintain positions.

+12M macro: goldilocks returns, contingent on US / Iran

+12M stagflation setup has made way for a goldilocks backdrop (note that most of the

survey was conducted before the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict). A net 45% of Exhibit 1: #1 metals & mining, software,

fund managers think the SA economy will be stronger in 12M, versus 0% last month, and retail, platinum

a net 73% expect lower inflation (the highest since Sep’24). A net 22% see further SARB Positioning by manager: 1ow - 5uw

hikes, down sharply from 100% last month, with the highest chance given to another Relative to

hike in Q3 followed by cuts in Q4. +12M: repo 6.8%, R2035 8.55%, USD/ZAR 16.0. history Jul Jun OW/UW

Bonds 2 1 uw

OW metals & mining, UW gold & telcos; offshore revival Equities 3 1 ow