Jul ‘26 Credit Investor Survey: Bearish technicals

Research evidence excerpt

Jul ‘26 Credit Investor Survey: Bearish technicals

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IG Credit Strategist

Jul ‘26 Credit Investor Survey: Bearish

technicals

Jul ‘26 Credit Investor Survey: Bearish technicals 17 July 2026

Our fresh US Credit Investor Survey shows investor sentiment weakened in July relative Credit Strategy

to our prior April survey for both IG and HY investors. The sentiment shift appears to be United States

driven by concerns about technicals. Investors expect about $100bn in additional

hyperscaler supply across currencies in 2H-2026, which is around half of the amount

issued YtD. On the other hand, the view on valuations has been steady (investors still see

spreads as overvalued), while the outlook for credit quality and defaults improved.

LBO positive event risk

News reports suggest (but are unconfirmed) that Stripe and a private equity investor Yuri Seliger Credit Strategist

may be looking to take PayPal (PYPL) private in an LBO. LBOs are often a positive event BofAS

risk due to 1) most bonds with LBO risk (smaller non-financial issuers) having CoC and 2) +1yuri.seliger@bofa.com646 855 7209

low bond dollar prices. Less than 3% of the IG index is likely vulnerable to a potential Sohyun Marie Lee

LBO (due to a high dollar price), while 8% should instead benefit (due to the CoC Credit Strategist

covenant and a low bond dollar price). BofAS+1 646 855 7217

sohyun.lee@bofa.com

The Fed outlook is still hawkish See Team Page for List of Analysts

The cool June CPI reversed the impact of higher oil prices on the market pricing of Fed

rate hikes. Inflation remains elevated. Our economists are tracking +3.3% YoY for core

PCE, which is near the highest levels since 2023. The outlook for the Fed remains

hawkish. That means higher rates and stronger investor demand in 2H-2026.