Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly

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Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly

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Japan Financial Sector

BofA financials weekly, 17 July 2026

Industry Overview

17 July 2026

Banks (Shinichiro Nakamura) Equity

1Q consolidated NP progress rates are forecast at 23-28% for major banks (32% pretax Japan

profit progress at Shinsei, which books negative goodwill / 32% progress at Japan Post Banks, Brokerage, Insurance & Other

Holdings) and 18-31% for regional banks (31% progress at Hachijuni Nagano / Shiga). Nonbank

While these are solid progress rates for 1Q, we do not particularly assume upward

Shinichiro Nakamura >>

revisions to full-year guidance, as we expect benefits from additional BoJ rate hikes, Research Analyst

upside in fee income, and expansion in gains on sale of equities from 2Q onward (there BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 8824

could be room for Mebuki, which announced conservative initial guidance after the June shinichiro.nakamura@bofa.com

BoJ rate hike, to raise 1H guidance [effectively including an upward revision to full-year Natsumu Tsujino, CFA >>

guidance]). For share buybacks, there is a high possibility of announcements by Chiba / Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

Yokohama / Shizuoka, and Mebuki also has room to announce share buybacks (our +81 3 6225-8720

forecasts: Chiba ¥20.0bn, Yokohama ¥25.0bn, Shizuoka ¥40.0bn, Mebuki ¥10.0bn). Some natsumu.tsujino@bofa.com

market participants expect Mizuho FG to raise full-year guidance and announce share Yuji Kobayashi >> Research Analyst

buybacks, but given strong large-corporate funding demand, we forecast an upward BofAS Japan

revision to full-year guidance / announcement of share buybacks at 2Q results rather +81yuji.kobayashi@bofa.com3 6225 8791

than at 1Q results. Other points to watch are whether management provides follow-up