Q2 Preview: Hotels are the real World Cup winner

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Preview: Hotels are the real World Cup winner

Accessible version

Lodging

Q2 Preview: Hotels are the real World Cup

winner

Price Objective Change

Q2: Strong US RevPAR will drive beats and raises across 20 July 2026

US RevPAR was up +5.7% Y/Y and our hotel C-Corps are tracking +110bps ahead of the Equity

Street. Q2 improved +190bps sequentially over Q1 and comps remain easy through the United States

fall. We tweak our models to align with our RevPAR tracking and raise our sector EBITDA Lodging

estimates +100bps on avg., reflecting better than expected Q2 and a small raise to Q3.

Shaun C. Kelley

Bottom line: RevPAR trends exceeded expectations in Q2 with the World Cup adding a ResearchBofAS Analyst

+75bp lift to the quarter with a skew to the higher end of the chain scales. That said, the +1 646 855 1005

average Lodging stock is up +33% in Q2, and while sentiment has been positive, we shaun.kelley@bofa.com

think investors are expecting to hear more confident tones from management teams and Dany Asad Research Analyst

earnings raises beyond just the Q2 beats in order to sustain the sector’s momentum. BofAS

+1 646 855 5238

US RevPAR solid with 75bps of World Cup; Int’l a rare drag dany.asad@bofa.com Julie Hoover

Q2 US RevPAR was +5.7%, driven by Luxury (+10%), urban/resorts (+7%) and weekdays Research Analyst

(+6%). We estimate the FIFA World Cup added +300bps to US RevPAR per tournament BofAS +1 646 855 0674

day, adding +225bps to June and +75bps to Q2. This impact skews to higher end chains, julie.hoover@bofa.com

with Luxury a +695bp beneficiary per day vs. Economy’s +105bps. This World Cup skew

could be masking the convergence (Ex. 17) between high- and low-end hotels that our

BAC Card data has identified across other areas of consumer spending (see the latest