The Paper Trail: Earnings season starts with Pulp names

Research evidence excerpt

The Paper Trail: Earnings season starts with Pulp names

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European Paper and Packaging

The Paper Trail: Earnings season starts

with Pulp names

Industry Overview

Cost run-rate, pulpwood tailwinds, sales mix 20 July 2026

This week we review key themes for upcoming paper & packaging results. The Equity

bellwether EU pulp names UPM, STERV and SCAB will report their 2Q results this week Europe

on 22-23 July. Overall, key swing factors will include cost run-rates (logistics and Paper and Packaging

chemical input inflation), lumber cost deflation (this quarter should start showing Reinhardt van der Walt >>

material benefit), and companies’ softwood pulp geographic mix (widespread between Research Analyst

EU vs China). We update estimates for actual 2Q26 commodity prices and reiterate MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 9270

ratings with updated POs (unchanged target multiples). reinhardt.vanderwalt@bofa.com

George L. Staphos

UPM: Energy down, pulp cycle turning, paper pressure ResearchBofAS Analyst

We see earnings towards the upper-end of 1H26 guidance (in-line with consensus) but george.l.staphos@bofa.com

first-time 2H26 guidance could disappoint – our 2H26 EBITDA is -14% below cons. Key Caio Ribeiro >>

Research Analyst

focus areas for results: 1) energy segment earnings normalisation as power prices fall Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

from c. EUR150/MWh back to c. EUR45/MWh. This could yet again be the key swing caio.ribeiro@bofa.com

factor in results and will likely determine whether UPM lands in the upper vs middle part Jason Fairclough >>

of its 1H guidance. 2) pulp price outlook commentary. In our view, pulp prices have MLI (UK)

started a down-cycle due to seasonality + market loosening. See our recent pulp price jason.fairclough@bofa.com

update here.