2Q26E: Challenges persist, few bright spots: Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26E: Challenges persist, few bright spots: Earnings Preview

% and 11.6%,

respectively. We project a steep 139% increase in net earnings from continued

operations, as FEMSA laps prior-year FX losses.

• MercadoLibre (MELI): While we expect strong GMV and revenue growth, we look

for margins to remain under pressure. We expect MELI to sustain strong momentum

in Brazil (GMV +36%) as it laps the reduction in the free shipping minimum to R$19

in June 2025, supported by continued investment in free shipping, marketing, cross-

border trade, 1P, Pix discounts and promotional take rates. Investments, however,

should pressure take rates and margins. We expect MELI to outperform peers in

Mexico in a difficult environment. In Argentina, we expect growth rates to moderate,

with continued margin investment as MELI rolls out its credit card. We anticipate

strength in other markets, particularly in fintech, ahead of MELI’s announced credit

card launch in Chile, currently available to select clients. Local FX appreciation y/y

should support stronger USD growth across markets, with the ARS stronger in real

terms. We estimate consolidated revenue growth of 43.7% in USD to $9.8bn, but a

19.9% y/y EBIT decline to $660.4mn, as MELI continues to invest in free shipping,

marketing, credit cards, cross-border trade and AI. We forecast a 14bp q/q EBIT

margin contraction to 6.8%, as historical seasonality is muted by further take rate

cuts in Brazil, accelerated 1P growth and World Cup marketing. We forecast lower

FX losses, offset in part by a higher effective tax rate, to result in a more modest

15.5% EPS decline, to $8.72.

• Tiendas 3B (TBBB): We look for SSS and total sales growth to accelerate to

+17%/34% as price-conscious shoppers continue to migrate towards TBBB's deep