F1Q27: Fare concerns overdone

Research evidence excerpt

F1Q27: Fare concerns overdone

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Ryanair

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 30.00 EUR | Price: 25.96 EUR

Lower 27E EPS by 3% on softer fare outlook 20 July 2026

Ryanair shares are down -5% intraday after F1Q PAT missed expectations and Equity

management cut fare guidance, with F2Q now expected down LSD to MSD. F1Q net

profit of €538m (-34% y/y) was -7% below consensus (-4% below BofAe). We lower

Key ChangesFY27E EPS by -3%, reflecting the F1Q miss and softer fare outlook. Unit costs ex fuel

were better-than-expected, which is supportive of Ryanair’s further market share gains. (EUR) Previous Current

Our PO/ADR is unchanged at €30/$67.5 as we apply a higher target multiple of 16.5x 2027E EPS 1.85 1.79

(from 16.0x). Shares trade on 12x FY28E, which we view as unjustified given Ryanair’s 2028E EPS 2.14 2.09

market-share opportunity, 8% FY26-29E EPS growth and strong balance sheet. Buy. 2029E EPS 2.63 2.55

2027E DPS 0.39 0.45

Winter capacity cuts to potentially support fares

We think extrapolating F2Q fare weakness across H2 is too conservative. F2Q guidance Muneeba Kayani >>

Research Analyst

was cut to “down LSD to MSD” y/y from flat, with Aug/Sept already 75%/40% booked. MLI (UK)

We forecast F2Q fares down -2% y/y. For H2, MOL flagged possible winter fare +44 20 7996 5208 muneeba.kayani@bofa.com

pressure, but sees upside if elevated jet fuel drives capacity rationalisation, as he doubts

Kate Xiao, CFA >>

the industry can deliver the c.5% scheduled Winter growth. F4Q should also benefit from Research Analyst

both Easter weekends falling in the quarter. We forecast F3Q/F4Q fares flat/+4% y/y. MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 3051

kate.xiao2@bofa.com

Unit cost ex fuel better-than-expected Jack Raeburn >>

F2Q ex fuel unit costs surprised positively at +2% y/y.