More to go – value from the combined entity emerging

Research evidence excerpt

More to go – value from the combined entity emerging

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Poste Italiane

More to go – value from the combined

entity emerging

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 32.00 EUR | Price: 27.59 EUR

TIM’s board formally backing Poste Italiane’s offer 21 July 2026

Poste’s offer went live on July 20 and is set to end on Sept. 11. It committed to pay: (i) a Equity

cash component equal to €1.67 for each TIM share, and (ii) 0.218 Poste new shares for

each one of TIM. These shares are worth c.30% more since the bid was first presented.

Key ChangesHowever, TIM shares still trade c.2% through terms despite its board unanimously

approved the tender offer as “fair”. (EUR) Previous Current

Price Obj. 28.80 32.00

2026E DPS 1.29 1.35Proposed €0.7bn synergies provide some upside

Poste’s proposed offer relies on €0.5bn cost savings before tax, of which c.€0.1bn

relates to lower funding costs (its rating is BBB+ vs. TIM’s BB-). This would leave Antonio Reale >>

Research Analyst

c.€0.4bn underlying cost savings, equal to cutting only c.2-3% of the combined entity’s MLI (UK)

cost base (ex-TIM Brasil). Revenue synergies are targeted at >€0.2bn. The use of DTAs +44 20 7996 1763 antonio.reale@bofa.com

also means almost no taxes will be paid on those synergies, hence the €0.7bn is net.

Rohan Datta, CFA >>

MLI (UK)Poste-TIM key play on consolidation in Italian telco +44 20 7995 8102

Italy is one of the least consolidated telco markets in Europe. Further prospective M&A rohan.datta@bofa.com

would contribute to create fewer and more profitable players. The ARPU in highly

concentrated markets, is nearly 2x higher than in Italy, which is the lowest in the EU.

Italy is still a four-player market; if it were to move to three (Iliad key potential swing), Stock Data