Thailand – Riding the AI wave, but not capturing it

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand – Riding the AI wave, but not capturing it

into domestic production at anything like the headline rate.

Gross exports measure what crosses the border; the MPI measures what Thai factories

actually produce. Right now, the two are pointing in different directions.

Why: a K-shaped manufacturing economy

The reconciliation lies in the increasingly two-track structure of Thai manufacturing.

The upper arm of the K is narrow. Electronics exports are outgrowing non-tech exports

by an extraordinarily wide margin — electronics at +50.6% YoY YTD against agricultural

exports contracting -1.9%, vehicles and parts at just +2.3% (and turning sharply negative

in May at -11.4%, dragged by a near-halving of passenger car exports), and electrical

appliances slowing to the low single-digits. Headline export growth of 17% therefore

does not describe the experience of the median Thai exporter; it describes the

experience of a handful of AI-linked segments, further inflated by transshipment flows

that overstate even that.

The winners are too small to carry the whole. In production terms, the segments that are

genuinely expanding — computers and HDDs, electronics, and electrical equipment, as

well as food and beverages — account for only around 40% of manufacturing

production. The Computer & HDD production index has climbed roughly 15% above its

early-2024 level, and electronics production is recovering, but these gains are being fully

offset by the other 60% of the manufacturing base. Traditional industries remain under

sustained pressure: motor vehicle production is running some 15% below its early-2024

level with little sign of recovery, and petrochemicals and other legacy industries continue

to grind sideways or lower amid Chinese overcapacity and soft regional demand. The