High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy

Energy Weekly

Refined product markets at record margin 20 July 2026

Last week our Commodity Strategy team highlighted that the US reimposing a blockade High Yield Credit

on Iranian ports has led to refining crack spreads at or near records. After months of United States

disruptions, petroleum product inventories have decreased to very low levels leaving Energy

very little cushion heading into a meaningful expected seasonal surge in 2H26. If OPEC+

supplies exceed demand & refineries struggle to come back online, record-high gasoline Table of Contents

& diesel cracks may be required to entice China or others to allow fuel exports again and

ultimately demand destruction may be required to balance markets. On the crude side Sector Performance 2

the market is relatively well supplied after strategic inventory releases and low refinery Commodity Prices 3

run rates. Their forecast continues to hinge on the pace of the Strait's reopening. The Relative Value & Comparable Company Information 4

world still has enough crude to withstand 1-2 months of skirmishes around Hormuz E&P Downside Sensitivity Analysis 9

assuming energy infrastructure is not damaged further. If tensions persist for weeks Midstream & Distribution Downside Sensitivity

Brent could reset above $100/bbl, but a rapid reopening could overwhelm refineries and Analysis

slump crude prices. The team notes that high fuel prices could further boost TTF given Oilfield Services Downside Sensitivity Analysis 11

interlink with middle distillates. Their TTF forecast is unchanged at ~$15.40/mmbtu in Midstream Overview 12

2026 and ~$11.70/mmbtu in 2027. See The crude reality of oil markets. E&P Hedging Overview 13