2Q26 better than we feared, but earnings (not cash flow) still below consensus

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2Q26 better than we feared, but earnings (not cash flow) still below consensus

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TotalEnergies

2Q26 better than we feared, but earnings

(not cash flow) still below consensus

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 82.00 EUR | Price: 69.59 EUR

Key takeaways 17 July 2026

Equity• 2Q26 update hit by weaker gas trading, but beats on volumes. Inline with our below-

consensus estimate for liquids pricing.

• Stronger oil trading helps Downstream beat. We raise our 2Q26 earnings estimate by Key Changes

7%. However, we remain 7% below consensus (US$) Previous Current

• But our CFFO estimate remains ahead of consensus (now by almost 10%). Reiterate 2026E EPS 11.26 11.05

Buy with TTE's September CMD as key catalyst 2028E EPS 12.21 12.20

2Q26 not as weak as we feared ChristopherResearch AnalystKuplent >>

TTE’s 2Q26 trading indicators yesterday confirmed our below-consensus stance on MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 8222

earnings – although we believe TTE’s 2Q26 performance will be better than we feared: christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

We raise our clean net income estimate for 2Q26 from <$6.1bn to ~$6.5bn (and narrow Matthew Smith >>

the gap to VA consensus at ~$7bn). Our upgrade comprises TTE’s indication of stronger ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

oil trading and higher Upstream production – more than offsetting weaker gas trading. +44 20 7996 7109 matt.smith1@bofa.com

FY26+ barely changed, consensus 2027 FCF too low CianResearchEvans-CowieAnalyst >>

Most of our estimate fine-tuning carries limited extrapolation into 2H26 or beyond: We MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 0940

only adjust our FY26+ earnings estimates by <1%. While our estimates are inline with cian.evans-cowie@bofa.com

consensus for 2026, we see significant upside beyond (despite assuming a return to