Europe Economic Weekly: Waiting for those summer vibes

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Europe Economic Weekly: Waiting for those summer vibes

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Europe Economic Weekly

Waiting for those summer vibes

Weekly view: Still hoping for the summer lull to come 17 July 2026

Renewed geopolitical tensions paired with potential heatwave effects can create unusual Economics

data swings during the summer months. Rhine level headlines are back, too, but we Europe

would expect that recurring phenomenon to be more contained in growth impact now.

Euro area: ECB preview – see you after the summer break BofA+44 20Euro7995Economics1476

The ECB is likely to keep rates on hold next week. No sense of urgency to hike. europeaneconomics@bofa.com

Communication changes are likely to be small, maintaining an implicit hiking bias. We Ruben Segura-Cayuela

Europe Economist

expect one more hike in September. Cuts will need to follow in 2027. BofA Europe (Madrid)

+34 91 514 3053

UK: The second-round test ruben.segura-cayuela@bofa.com

Evelyn Herrmann

Data next week will be key to judge if energy shock is feeding into persistent price Europe Economist

pressures. We expect not, but risks are to the upside. Our base case is BoE on prolonged BofASE (France)

+33 1 8770 0292

hold, but risk of a near-term hike is higher than a cut. Sept/ Nov are live meetings, but evelyn.herrmann@bofa.com

the bar for a July hike is very high. Sonali Punhani

UK Economist

Next week: MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1032

Lots of survey data, from ZEW and Bank Lending Survey (Tue) to “flash” PMIs (Fri). UK sonali.punhani@bofa.com

labour market data should show wages and unemployment move sideways (Tue), UK Chiara Angeloni

inflation expected at 2.7% (Wed), UK retail sales to decline 0.9% mom (Fri). Central bank BofA Europe (Milan)

calendar: ECB meeting (Thu), ECB consumer inflation expectations survey (Fri).