Sasol Ltd. (SOLJ.J): Destoning and gas lift SO volumes; intl. chems EBITDA set to beat guidance; 4Q26 Business performance metrics

Research evidence excerpt

Sasol Ltd. (SOLJ.J): Destoning and gas lift SO volumes; intl. chems EBITDA set to beat guidance; 4Q26 Business performance metrics

Goldman Sachs Sasol Ltd. (SOLJ.J)

Outlook

Management expects FY26 financial metrics to be in line with or exceed guidance, aside

for NWC, which was higher at year-end on higher pricing and a fuels inventory build that

will support supply in Q1 FY27 during the Natref shutdown and reduce fuel imports.

Looking ahead, the operating environment is expected to remain volatile amid evolving

market dynamics, and management reiterated its focus on maintaining continuity,

supporting customers, and responding to changing market conditions. We look forward

for FY26 results and the FY27 outlook on 1 September 2026.

Operational performance:

n Mining. Saleable production rose 6% QoQ in 4Q26 (7.4mt vs. 7.0mt), and FY26

saleable production of 28.4mt was marginally above prior year (28.2mt) and within

the 28-30mt guidance range. External purchases increased 17% QoQ (2.1mt vs.

1.8mt) on higher SO consumption, but FY26 purchases declined 12% YoY (8.8mt vs.

10.0mt) on higher own production and rerouting of previously external volumes to

internal operations. Sinks for FY26 averaged just below the 12%-14% guidance

range on the destoning project, and total cost per sales ton ended within the

R700-R750/t guide.

n Gas. In Mozambique, 4Q26 gas production was 11% higher QoQ (28.9bscf vs.

26.0bscf), reflecting recovery in operational performance as condensate logistics

stabilised. FY26 total natural gas production of 114.0bscf was 7% lower YoY (vs.

122.2bscf) on operational constraints, flooding impacts and natural well decline

under the PPA, partially offset by a growing production sharing agreement (PSA)

contribution (within the 5-10% below-FY25 guidance range).