Americas Power & Energy Transition - Dear PJM: No Offense, But You‘re a Mess

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Power & Energy Transition - Dear PJM: No Offense, But You‘re a Mess

21 July 2026

Americas Energy & Transition

Americas Power & Energy Transition - Dear PJM: No Offense, But

You're a Mess

The Key Takeaway in two sentences: PJM doesn’t have enough supply for the data center Sunaina Ocalan

.+1 917 344 8503 boom, and can’t fix it quickly - new (firm) capacity is unlikely to come online before 2030.

sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com CEG and VST have existing generation assets - Scarcity benefits companies that own the

scarce product.

Anshika Bajpai

+1 917 344 8306 Key Takeaways in more detail: anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com

PJM has an overconstrained problem. It wants to keep prices “affordable”, and generation Raphael Lee

+1 917 344 8355 reliable for its consumers (both great outcomes!), it wants utilities to build new generation,

raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com in a heightened cost environment, but is capping capacity prices, can’t get its policy

incentives lined out fast enough, or clear the interconnection queue fast enough for new

projects.

Data center load growth (plus broader electrification) is pushing PJM’s forecast up faster

than new generation can get built and connected.

The interconnection queue has a multi-year backlog — PJM has been working through it,

but more than 46,000 MW of installed capacity (ICAP) of already-approved resources have

yet to be built, largely stuck on permitting, supply chain, and project economics.

Overlay dispatchable capacity lost to coal retirements. Net effect: the 2027/28 and

2028/29 auctions were the first in PJM’s history where the RTO fell short of its own

reliability requirement even after buying everything offered.

The longer the shortage persists, the more valuable CEG and VST’s assets become. As a