Americas Power & Energy Transition: Baseload, Rising - Bernstein‘s Power Forecast until 2030

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Power & Energy Transition: Baseload, Rising - Bernstein‘s Power Forecast until 2030

13 July 2026

Americas Energy & Transition

Americas Power & Energy Transition: Baseload, Rising -

Bernstein's Power Forecast until 2030

There’s never been a more important time to have a good power demand forecast. After Sunaina Ocalan

.+1 917 344 8503 decades of no demand growth, electricity demand is growing in the US. It’s not just artificial

sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com intelligence - it’s reshoring, it’s electrification, and normal GDP growth. At current demand,

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are growing and providing returns to shareholders.

Anshika Bajpai The macro debate isn’t really whether power demand is going up or how much is power

+1 917 344 8306

anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com demand increasing anymore….I think everyone agrees it’s going up (more on our forecast

below). The debate is who captures the margin on supplying it.

Raphael Lee

+1 917 344 8355 We use an in-house built power supply and demand model to forecast power demand by

raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com sector - that we think is really easy to use and sensitize. We use the power supply portion to

inform our view on our forecasts for the companies that will serve this demand. The supply

model also helps provide a sanity check for the guidance from the companies we cover. We

go into detail below.

Our proprietary power supply and demand model helps us forecast demand by sub-sector

(residential, commercial, industrial, and transport) and deep-dive into key drivers of those

sub-sectors below (for example, data centers for commercial power demand). We forecast

supply by sub-sector and consider the role of intermittency of renewables in the forecast as

well.