Powering Al: Mapping the gas turbine supply stack - a unified approach

Research evidence excerpt

Powering Al: Mapping the gas turbine supply stack - a unified approach

18 June 2026

Global Capital Goods

Powering AI: Mapping the gas turbine supply stack - a unified

approach

This report reframes the debate on gas turbines away from short-term peak demand Alasdair Leslie

+44 20 7762 4952 concerns toward durability of earnings, addressing investor fears of overcapacity as OEMs

alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com ramp supply. Our incremental analysis integrates turbine, engine, and fuel cell capacity into a

unified framework, highlighting where oversupply risk is real (mid-scale/BTM) vs overstated

Chad Dillard (HDGT). We conclude gas turbine markets are transitioning toward a more balanced yet

+1 917 344 8469

chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com still tight supply-demand dynamic, with strong backlog visibility and embedded pricing,

strengthening conviction in our Outperform ratings on Siemens Energy and GE Vernova.

Sunaina Ocalan

.+1 917 344 8503 Capacity expansion is significant, though the oversupply risk can be isolated. We

sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com estimate global turbine capacity rising >60% to ~110GW by 2030, driven almost entirely

by brownfield expansions across the ‘big-3’. This contrasts with the prior cycle’s greenfield

Om Kela overbuild. This is an important distinction: capacity can be scaled down at lower cost if +44 20 7550 2192

om.kela@bernsteinsg.com demand normalizes, reducing downside risk.

Dan Corcuera-Robbins, ACA The “supply glut” narrative is misplaced—oversupply is concentrated in mid-scale

+44 20 7762 5184 generation, not HDGT. Engine and fuel cell capacity additions are substantial (driving

dan.corcuera-robbins@bernsteinsg.com

c.70% of the >170 GW in incremental prime power capacity), but these technologies are