Powering Al: The coming wave of mid-scale generator manufacturing capacity & why the power bottleneck will ease

Research evidence excerpt

Powering Al: The coming wave of mid-scale generator manufacturing capacity & why the power bottleneck will ease

17 June 2026

Global Capital Goods

Powering AI: The coming wave of mid-scale generator

manufacturing capacity & why the power bottleneck will ease

This note quantifies the supply/demand balance of the mid-scale power generation industry Chad Dillard

+1 917 344 8469 through 2030. We developed a company-by-company capacity model for large reciprocating

chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com engines and industrial/aeroderivative turbines covering standby & prime power applications

for data centers and beyond. For Excel access, contact your Bernstein salesperson.

Alasdair Leslie

+44 20 7762 4952 The mid-scale power generation industry is moving from shortage to surplus. alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com

Assuming all announced capacity expansions goes ahead, we believe supply will exceed

demand by ~15-45 GW or 10-35%. Breaking it down by application, prime power will enter Sunaina Ocalan

.+1 917 344 8503 oversupply after 2029-30, totaling 5-10 GW, while standby power will enter oversupply

sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com after 2027-28, totaling ~10-30 GW by 2030.

Madison Rezaei OEMs are aggressively ramping manufacturing capacity. We have aggregated every

+1 917 344 8622

madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com capacity expansion announcements by industrial/aeroderivative turbine (<120MW/unit)

and reciprocating engine (2-10 MW/unit) OEMs. Between 2024 and 2030, capacity will

Adrien Rabier double from ~85 GW to ~195 GW. Putting it into context, this ~110 GW increase equals a

+44 20 7676 6820 quarter of the power consumed in the US, and 14x and 8x the annual data center capacity

adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com added in the US and worldwide, respectively.