The Burnham era begins

Research evidence excerpt

The Burnham era begins

FICC Research

Interest Rates

21 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

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US CPI: US real yields rose on Monday while benchmark breakevens rose 1bp with markets

focused on ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and AI-related developments.

Thursday brings the 10y new-issue TIPS auction, which we previewed in Forever 21 redux. It will

be a data-light week ahead of the July FOMC meeting and month-end next week.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: In addition to focus on crack spreads and energy-related risk, the key

event for the market comes this Thursday via the July ECB Governing Council meeting. Barclays'

economists expect the ECB's policy rates and balance sheet policies to stay unchanged, with no

significant changes to its policy statement, noting that "The Governing Council is unlikely to

provide a clear signal about September, preferring instead to preserve optionality while

stressing its readiness to act." (A broad sense of direction, 17 July 2026). Beyond the ECB, it will