After the Rally, What‘s Next?

Research evidence excerpt

After the Rally, What‘s Next?

IdeaMPreviewing 2Q results for US LNG companies. With this note, we refresh our

forecasts for latest company updates. Our 2026 EBITDA estimates are largely in-line

with consensus. See below for our views into earnings:

• Cheniere. We forecast $1.7 B of 2Q EBITDA (cons: $1.7 B), representing a

relatively clean quarter with no major operational disruptions or notable

downtime. Our full-year estimate of $7.8 B is unchanged vs prior (cons: $7.8

B, guide: $7.25 - 7.75), although would be closer to $8.0 B if TTF/JKM futures

as of 7/21 hold. Cheniere achieved substantial completion at CCL Stage 3

Train 6 in June and Train 7 is tracking towards fall completion. On July, 17th,

Cheniere received permission from FERC to introduce fuel gas to the train.

We continue to model full year sales volumes of ~53 mt. With Sabine Pass

Train 7 now commercialized and limited notice to proceed (LNTP) issued, we

look forward to receiving updates on permitting before final investment

decision (FID, MSe YE26). Cheniere PT is unchanged at $308, remain

Overweight. CQP PT moves to $62/sh ($72 prior) as we shift some of our

assumed future growth away from Sabine Pass to the Corpus Christi site,

remain Equal-weight.

• EE. We model $119 MM of 2Q EBITDA (cons: $118 MM) with full-year EBITDA

of $494 MM, slightly above consensus of $491 MM and just below the

midpoint of guidance ($480 - 510 MM). We assume that EE did not receive

its contracted volume under its Qatar LNG contract during 2Q, a ~$3 MM

EBITDA impact. We also now assume that this volume disruption persists

through 3Q, but our full-year EBITDA estimate remains near the midpoint of

guidance. We continue to model a mid-2027 start for the Iraq terminal. We